Europe Trade-off on Syria
The EU’s top diplomats promise to rebuild Syria and collect money to the concerned country if Assad agrees to peace talk.
After Russian and Iranian intervention gave the regime the upper hand in the war on ground, the EU promised to leverage its role as an aid donor in return of Assad agreeing to the peace talk as a sign of trade-off.
The aids are not only going to cover the humanitarian aspect of the refugees but will mainly concentrate on the reconstruction of Syria and reviving it economically in the war free areas.
Frederica mogirini will be hosting an international conference on Syria on the 24th and 25th of April in Brussels consecutive to last year’s reconstruction conference in Brussels too as Europe is ready to help Syria economically in early recourse made in areas free from Daesh in return of de-escalation and peace talks.
Now Syria has the chance to use the deal economically and start working on rebuilding war free areas and areas free from Daesh.
Last year Europe contributed to the rebuilding of Syria economically and its pledge was 1.2 billion EUR this year Europe is promising more in return for peace.
The EU is still preparing the opposition for peace talks and the convention so that it has bigger chances of upper hand in peace talks and convention even though it is preparing also for peace talks with Assad.
“Assad has unleashed hell on Syria, the EU must not make a deal with him and reward him” stated by Raed El Saleh to the guardian days after Assad has bomber chemically a Syrian area and a month before last year’s EU Brussels convention.
Last year, a few months after chemical attacks by the regime, the EU met in Brussels not to prosecute Assad after escalation but to reconstruct seen by some as a reward for Assad. The EU regards reconstruction of Syria a humanitarian cause and uses this opportunity to pledge de-escalation and peace talks.
This Trade off was explained by the Lingendale Netherland Institute of Research as a way to minimize losses after Assad’s victory on the ground.
The EU are expecting an Assad victory on the ground, it is likely that the regime will win the civil war against the civilians by military means and alliance with Russia and Iran.
This means that the regime will dominate Syria without having to compromise on how Syria is going to be governed. The regime will most likely use the reconstruction aid to rebuild his loyal areas and punish his disloyal areas as per the usual. The EU found that there is no way of reconstructing infrastructure without having to strengthen the regime however the EU cannot disregard the state of refugees and the Syrian population. The EU offers aids as its main cause is the state of the Syrian population and cannot leave millions of Syrians displaced in Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan so the EU decided on the reconstruction while using the money as a trade-off with Assad after the likelihood that Assad is going to win the civil war.
It is concluded that due to the winning of Assad on the ground and after last year’s convention the EU is preparing for peace talks in return of reconstruction aid to be received by the government to reduce the losses against the regime. This aid is most likely to be used by Assad to rebuild his loyal areas and punish the disloyal areas which is seen internationally as a reward for Assad. Last year the EU compromised and rewarded the government 1.2 Billion EUR months after chemical attacks which leaves us wondering about how correct is the EU decision of reconstruction against a peace trade-off.
